JPR: Graphics Chip Market Dips in 4Q
March 26, 2013

JPR: Graphics Chip Market Dips in 4Q

Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, examined the estimated graphics chip shipments and suppliers' market share for Q4 2012, and the news was disappointing for every one of the major players.

AMD dropped 13.6%, Intel slipped the least at just 2.9%, and Nvidia declined the most with 16.7% quarter-to-quarter change ­- this coming on the heels of a spectacular third quarter. The overall PC market actually grew 2.8% quarter-to-quarter while the graphics market declined 8.2%, reflecting a decline in double-attach. That may be attributed to Intel's improved embedded graphics, finally making "good enough" a true statement.

On a year-to-year basis, JPR found that total graphics shipments during last year's fourth quarter dropped 11.5% compared to PCs, which declined by 5.6% overall. GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped, and most of the PC vendors are guiding down for Q1 '13.

The turmoil in the PC market has caused PJR to modify its forecast since the last report; it is less aggressive on both desktops and notebooks. The popularity of tablets and the persistent recession are the contributing factors that have altered the nature of the PC market. Nonetheless, the CAGR for PC graphics from 2012 to 2016 is 3.2%, and JPR expects the total shipments of graphics chips in 2016 to be 549 million units.

The 10-year average change for graphics shipments for quarter-to-quarter is a growth of -1.3%. This quarter is below the average, with an 8.2% decrease.

The findings include discrete and integrated graphics (CPU and chipset) for desktops, notebooks (and netbooks), and PC-based commercial (POS) and industrial/scientific, and embedded. This report does not include handhelds (mobile phones), x86 servers, or ARM-based tablets (iPad and Android-based tablets), smartbooks, or ARM-based servers. It does include x86-based tablets, however.

The Quarter in General

AMD's quarter-to-quarter total shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, (APUs) increased 0.8% from Q3 and declined 19.1% in notebooks. The company's overall PC graphics shipments slipped 13.6%.

Intel's quarter-to-quarter desktop processor-graphics EPG shipments increased from last quarter by 3%, and notebooks fell by 6.76%. The company's overall PC graphics shipments dropped 2.9%.

Nvidia's quarter-to-quarter desktop discrete shipments fell 15.1% from last quarter; the company's mobile discrete shipments dropped 18.4%. Its overall PC graphics shipments declined 16.7%.

Year to year this quarter, AMD shipments declined 29.4%, Intel dropped 5%, Nvidia slipped 4.6%, and VIA fell 10% from last year.

Total discrete GPUs (desktop and notebook) fell 15.9% from the last quarter and were down 9.7% from last year for the same quarter due to the same problems plaguing the overall PC industry. Overall, the trend for discrete GPUs is up with a CAGR to 2016 of 3.2%.

Ninety-nine percent of Intel's non-server processors have graphics, and over 67% of AMD's non-server processors contain integrated graphics; AMD still ships IGPs.

Year to year for the quarter, the graphics market decreased. Shipments were down three million units from the same quarter last year.