According to Newzoo's 2013 Global Games Market Report, game revenues will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% to $86.1 billion by 2016. The number of gamers worldwide will rise from 1.21 billion this year to 1.55 billion. Mobile gaming will grow at an average annual rate of 19% for smartphones and 48% for tablets, grossing $13.9b and $10.0b in 2016, respectively.
Combined, they will take a 27.8% share of the global market, up almost 10 percentage points compared to this year. Primarily fueled by a global CAGR of 10.4% for MMO games on PC, the computer screen will continue to lead other screens with a market share of 35.8% totaling $30.9b in 2016.
Next-gen consoles and alternative distribution of games to TV will help to consolidate revenues through the TV screen at a global growth rate of 3.5%. The Asia-Pacific region will strengthen its leading position with a 37.9% market share by 2016 as emerging markets drive global growth.
Newzoo’s worldwide market size projections for the years 2012 to 2016 are illustrated below.
“Especially in the weeks leading up to E3 last year, we were witnessing a large number of global market estimates and projections from various sources. In principle it is not hard to make high-level market projections,” says Newzoo CEO Peter Warman. “The devil is in the detail, and the real challenge is twofold. First of all, projections should be based on primary data sources across all business models and involving all KPIs in the most granular way possible. This is very complex and is the reason we spent 12 months developing the model behind our global data report. The second challenge is to slice and present the data in a way that is useful to the industry and investors. This requires specific industry knowledge and hands-on experience working with global game companies on a daily basis.”
Newzoo’s market size estimates exclude consumer-to-consumer second-hand trade and sales taxes. Excluded are also hardware sales, business-to-business services and online gambling and betting revenues. Forecasts assume constant US dollar exchange rates for local currencies as per year-end 2012. Historic foreign currency revenues have been converted to US$ using the year-end exchange rate.
Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report is specifically designed to meet the demand for a global perspective on the games industry, filling the gap created by the current pace of change and slicing data in a way that suits industry needs. The 2013 Global Games Market Report and the underlying Global Games Market Model is a result of a continuous research effort that started early 2012. It combines transactional data, primary consumer research as well as extensive analysis of reported revenues and third party research.
The model calculates the absolute numbers of players, payers and average spend per segment for over 100 individual countries, representing over 90% of the worldwide population and is continuously updated with new information. It also assists in making projections into the future on a set of unique KPIs for the various regions in the world.